Russia Keeps the West Guessing as It Mulls Nuclear Strategy Shift

Published on November 3, 2024

Russia says it is reconsidering its nuclear doctrine—the document it relies on when deciding whether to launch a nuclear strike—and earlier this week, it carried out a major missile test. But with Russian leaders invoking the specter of nuclear weapons each time the West changes the goal posts in Ukraine, is this more saber-rattling, or does it represent a genuine shift in posture? Does the West need to change its assessment of risk? And what significance does a nuclear doctrine really have? On Sept. 25, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned of the consequences of the United States and its NATO allies allowing Ukraine to use longer-range weapons—which they have supplied—for strikes deep inside Russia....