Goldman Sachs Revises US Recession Probability Down to 20 Percent

Investment bank Goldman Sachs brought down the odds of a U.S. recession after recent data showed no signs of such an impending economic transition. Earlier in August, Goldman Sachs raised the odds of a recession in the United States from 15 to 25 percent following the unemployment rate hitting a three-year high last month. The brokerage has now “shaved our probability from 25 percent to 20 percent, mainly because the data for July and early August released since August 2 shows no sign of recession,” Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Saturday, according to Reuters. “Continued expansion would make the U.S. look more similar to other G10 economies, where the Sahm rule has held less than 70 percent of the time.”...