ANALYSIS: Why Doug Ford May Risk Calling an Early Election in Ontario

Three provinces will be heading to the polls this year, and amid a barrage of media questions, Ontario Premier Doug Ford confirmed that his province won’t be joining them. However, he hasn’t ruled out holding an election in 2025, sooner than the scheduled date of June 4, 2026. But why would a government elected with a second majority in 2022—meaning it can comfortably stay in power until 2026—want to go to the polls early? Though only the Progressive Conservatives know the answer to that, many observers are speculating that it has to do with provincial-federal dynamics. “There’s the idea of a ‘carbon tax election’ that Doug Ford would call. If he goes on that and it plays well enough in the media, he can go and ride the Poilievre wave that’s happening federally to go and give himself another majority on that,” Greg Loerts, a consultant with Bluesky Strategy Group, said in an interview....