ANALYSIS: Likely Next Moves for Liberals After Toronto Byelection Upset

Polling maps in recent months have shown swathes of blue across most of the country, except for big cities like Montreal and Toronto where ridings generally looked solid red. This tapestry changed in the early hours of June 25, when a lone blue square emerged from the core of the traditional Liberal stronghold of Toronto. The Toronto–St.Paul’s riding, held by the Liberals for over three decades, switched to Conservative by 590 votes. The surprise has rocked the political landscape and speculation is rife about what unfolds next. In 2021, the Liberals got double the votes of the Conservatives in the riding. This year, the Liberals were expecting a tighter contest, but not defeat. They would have interpreted even a close win as a sign of troubles ahead....