Poll Suggests Labour Will Win Largest Majority in Post-War History

Published on June 19, 2024

According to a poll of voting intentions, the Labour Party is set to win 453 seats in the July 4 election, gaining a majority of 256, which is the biggest of any post-war government. The Ipsos survey published on Tuesday predicts that the Conservatives could fall to a “record low” of holding only 115 constituencies, with high-profile Tories like Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, and Johnny Mercer being at risk of losing their seats. Liberal Democrats would also see significant gains, rising from 11 seats in the last Parliament to 38 in the next. The implied vote shares in Ipsos’s model put Labour at 43 percent, followed by the Conservatives on just 25 percent, Reform UK at 12 percent, the Liberal Democrats at 10 percent, Greens at 6 percent, the Scottish National Party at 3 percent, Plaid Cymru at 1 percent, and other parties polling at 1 percent....

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