Canada Has All the Symptoms of an Economy in Decline

Commentary Unemployment figures are considered by serious economists and market watchers to be a lagging indicator. But all too many of us make the mistake of believing that the unemployment rate is a leading indicator despite empirical evidence and objective reason. The lagging indicator argument makes sense, as employers do not usually lay off people until there is confirmation that their revenues and profitability are falling. This is confirmed by historical data. Consequently, it should be of little surprise that Canadian unemployment rose to 6.1 percent in March from 5.8 percent in February, according to Statistics Canada. In July of 2022, the unemployment rate hit a cycle low of 4.9 percent, while in March 2023, the rate was 5.0 percent. A rise of 22 percent in the unemployment rate in one year is consistent with the start of a classic recession. ...