December Jobs Dash Hopes of a Rate Cut; That’s a Good Thing

Published on January 5, 2024

Commentary This morning’s Establishment Survey jobs numbers printed at 216,000, well above the consensus expectation of 170,000. The Household Survey printed at at 169,000.  (The Establishment Survey estimates the number of new jobs created, so can take account of people working multiple jobs. The Household Survey estimates the number of people who gained jobs.) Some 52,000 of the Establishment Survey’s 216,000 new jobs were in government. Net revisions to the Establishment Survey for the prior two months reduced jobs by 75,000. The immediate effect of the better-than-expected jobs report was to drop bond prices and increase yields in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as soon as many had anticipated. But as the market digested the report, market sentiment was discrepant. A firmer direction may be found next Thursday when December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released....

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