Awaiting the Santa Claus Rally

Published on December 27, 2023

Commentary As we enter the last trading days of the year and volumes are light, if we continue to see positive news, save for possible escalations in the Middle East that are impossible to predict ahead of time, it should be a rising week, as it is the famed “Santa Claus rally.” In theory, this week should deliver new highs for 2023. The stock market rally has broadened out, and dramatically so. Even the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) has reached new 52-week highs. (In contrast, at the end of October, the SPXEW was at 52-week lows.) Based on this market action, seeing small caps and financial stocks rally significantly says the market does not anticipate a recession in 2024. The market may change its mind, but now all systems are “go.”...

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