Trump or Biden: Who Has Most to Lose From RFK Jr.’s Independent Run?

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would run as an independent instead of remaining a contender for the Democrat Party’s 2024 presidential nomination, pundits immediately started debating about whether the candidate would take more votes away from President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump. A series of recent polls show that Mr. Kennedy is gaining momentum and is having a mostly equal impact on both candidates. A survey of registered voters conducted from Siena College and the New York Times released in early November indicated that in six battleground states, Mr. Kennedy would receive 24 percent of the vote in a three-way race, while President Trump would get 35 percent and President Biden 33 percent. The balance said they remained undecided or wouldn’t vote....